Black Friday is not the wild rush it used to be. People no longer jump from their Thanksgiving meals to stand in long lines at midnight. The old scenes of shoppers running through stores, grabbing toys and TVs before anyone else, now feel like stories from another time. Online shopping and early discounts have slowed down that chaos.
Still, the day after Thanksgiving brings more people into US stores than any other day. That’s why Black Friday is still seen as the true start of the holiday shopping season.
This year begins with shoppers feeling unsure. A recent report from The Conference Board shows that confidence dropped because of the government shutdown, slow hiring, and rising prices.
Store owners say customers are now more careful with money. They look for deals, compare prices, and think before they buy. But people still spend more during important times, like the start of school or the holidays.
Bill Adams, chief economist at Comerica Bank, said shoppers often complain about the economy but still keep spending. Even so, he added that people are paying closer attention to prices and buying only what feels worth it.
Earlier in the year, retailers had to plan around President Donald Trump’s big tariffs on imported goods. Some companies shipped products earlier to avoid extra costs, while others took the hit themselves so customers wouldn’t see big price jumps.
A report from Circana found that 40% of general items sold in September were at least 5% more expensive than they were earlier in the year. Toys, baby products, kitchen items, and sports gear had some of the biggest price jumps. Since nearly 80% of toys sold in the U.S. come from China—where tariffs were high—prices rose fast.
Even with these challenges, many stores are seeing good momentum. At the Mall of America in Minnesota, foot traffic this month passed pre-pandemic levels, said Jill Renslow, the mall’s business and marketing chief.
“We’re seeing a strong start to the season,” she said. “The last few Saturdays have been very busy.”
Online spending is also rising. From Nov. 1 to Nov. 23, shoppers spent $79.7 billion online, said Adobe Analytics. That’s 7.5% more than last year and higher than expected.
Mastercard SpendingPulse predicts holiday spending from Nov. 1 to Dec. 24 will rise 3.6%, compared to a 4.1% rise last year.
“There’s worry out there,” said Mastercard Chief Economist Michelle Meyer. “People feel tense. But they are still showing up to shop.”
Adobe Analytics also shared the best days for online deals. Thanksgiving Day had the lowest prices for sporting goods. Black Friday is the best day to buy TVs, toys, and appliances online. Cyber Monday is expected to offer the biggest savings on clothes and computers. Clothing discounts, which were about 12% earlier in November, may reach 25% on Cyber Monday.
Black Friday may look different now, but it still plays a big role in how the holiday shopping season begins.