United States: The Urban-Brookings Tax Policy Center forecasts that if the 2017 tax reductions fade into expiration by year’s end, the average American’s tax burden could increase by nearly 7.5%. However, President Donald Trump has consistently declared a far steeper figure—68%, should the Republican-sponsored One Big Beautiful Bill Act fail to pass through the legislative process.
The administration offered no explanation for how this alarming number was calculated. Still, it seems plausible that Trump’s 68% may allude not to the scale of increase, but to the breadth—the percentage of Americans potentially facing any tax uptick if the cuts dissolve. Independent watchdogs say this interpretation brushes close to accuracy, but the president’s delivery paints a grander, more fearsome picture.
Take, for instance, Trump’s May 25 chat with reporters:
“If the Democrats don’t vote, it’s a 68% tax increase.”
Then again, on May 30, he echoed:
“You’ll have a 68% tax increase. You’re going to go up 68%. That’s a number that nobody’s ever heard of before. You’ll have a massive tax increase,” as per factcheck.org.
This sweeping statement refers to the sunsetting provisions of the 2017 Tax Cuts and Jobs Act (TCJA). If left untouched, individual tax brackets would revert to their pre-2017 frames—nudging liabilities upward.
It’s quite likely Trump meant 68% of Americans could face tax lifts, rather than a 68% increase in actual tax amounts—a crucial distinction.
This framing echoes that of Rep. Andy Barr, Republican from Kentucky. In a May 21 CNN appearance, he proclaimed:
“Anyone who votes against this bill… is voting for a $4 trillion tax increase, a tax increase on 68% of Americans.”
According to March projections by the Tax Policy Center, that claim floats close to factual. Their spokesman, John Buhl, wrote:
“Roughly 64.2% of households would fork over more in 2026 if the cuts expire.”
Similarly, the Tax Foundation approximates the figure around 62%, and Kent Smetters, a policy professor from UPenn, concurs that more than half of households would feel the pinch in a no-extension scenario.
So yes—Barr’s angle holds water. But Trump’s precise framing does not. No analysis found that Americans would see an average 68% swell in tax burdens. On the contrary, the average increase is much milder, according to factcheck.org.
Joseph Rosenberg, senior scholar at the Urban Institute, described it as:
“An average bump of about $2,100 in taxes, shrinking after-tax income by 2.1%—that’s about a 7.5% tax uptick, on average.”
The Tax Foundation’s analysis of the proposal considered after-tax income gains. For the lower 40% of earners (under $37,364), income could bloom by 2.8% to 3.3%. The middle band ($37,364–$71,067) would enjoy around 2.5% more, and the top 20% (earning above $125,315) would notch up a 3.8% boost—if the bill sails through.
While Democrats did indeed unanimously object to the bill—joined by two Republican defectors—the vote still eked through the House at 215-214. What Trump’s statements omit, though, is that many Democrats support renewing tax cuts for working- and middle-class earners, just not for the affluent elite.
Bottom Line:
The president’s 68% warning might sound terrifying, but it’s not about how much your taxes could rise—it’s about how many people might pay more. The average American, based on solid data, would see a modest increase, not a towering leap.